An ISO/DPO Journal

apr 29, 2020 | reading time 3 minute(s)

Why statistics mislead information about the spread of the covid-19 virus

The Covid-19 pandemic has become evident to how statistics can change from being worthless to being a truth-bearer. In Sweden, it has been used to demonstrate how an entire population is being threatned, illustrated with numbers of deaths due to Covid-19 (the statistics is questionable as Covid-19 in the majority of the deaths was not the cause but a contributing cause).

There live approximately 10 million people In Sweden. When the death tolls reached 400 media spread a perception that Sweden was about to tear apart by a virus – that society was collapsing under the pressure of a virus that in a month killed more than an ordinary influenza does in a whole season. Statistically, however, the figure was modest; 0.00004%. On April 29, 2020, the death toll was 2,355, or 0.0002%. Continuing the trend in a linear curve, we could by the turn of the year 2020/2021 expect death tolls of 10,000. Statistics shows that 0.001% of the population by then would die due to Covid-19.

If you don't like statistics, you can easily dismiss it by saying that it doesn't tell anything about how many people actually die. 0.001% doesn't sound too bad, while 10,000 dead natural people – someone's family or friend – mean everything. So – statistics are worthless, numbers are everything. It's just that I have realised that statistics is experiencing some kind of renaissance. Suddenly, the statistics have become almost as important as the numbers.

Latest in the line of statistical recognition is Professor Neil Ferguson's comparison of the death tolls between the State of New York and the Stockholm region. The state of New York has had about 17,600 Covid-19 related deaths while the Stockholm region has had about 1,300. In relation to the population it amounts to almost the same percentage - 0.0009% versus 0.0006%. Numbers no longer matter – the percentage shows that the Stockholm region has as many deaths as one of the world's largest metropolises. With that said, what Ferguson is trying to say is that the Swedish strategy of not shutting down society is as unprofitable as the American shutdown strategy - or in other words; had Sweden closed down society, the death tolls would have been much lower. Arguments, however, presuppose that the preconditions are equal, which they are not. The state of New York is populated by approximately 19.5 million people spread across 141,205 km2 (138 people per km2). The Stockholm region is populated by approximately 2.4 million people spread over 6,519 km2 (368 people per km2). The state of New York has about 37,000 intensive care units (0.002 units per inhabitant, or 0.28 units per km2). The Stockholm region has 238 intensive care units (0.0001 units per inhabitant, or 0.0238 units per km2). What do these statistics tell us?

  1. The Stockholm region is more densely populated than the state of New York.
  2. The number of intensive care units is denser in the state of New York than in the Stockholm region.


Both factors indicate that the infection is more likely to spread faster in the Stockholm region than in the state of New York, while access to adequate care units is slightly better in the state of New York than in the Stockholm region (regardless of care quality). A shutdown of Swedish society might have slowed down the spread of infection. But it is also likely that a shutdown may had accelerated the spread of infection, given infected people in close relationships are stuck together in contained spaces in combination with the lack of adequate care places in the region. To me statistics are not meant for future forecasts but for showing established facts. It is possible to build forecasts on statistics, but statistics as such are not anticipatory. Therefore, it is impossible to make assumptions based on statistics about what would have happened if we had acted differently.

I guess it is up to each and everyone to decide whether the statistics are worthless or a truth-bearer. To me it means everything in combination with explanatory facts and nothing by its own.

Kristofer Gisslén is an information security officer and data protection officer, based in Stockholm, Sweden. For the past two years he’s dwelled into the world of information security learning things along the way. Kristofer currently works at a mid-sized municipal expanding the organizations horizon on information security. This blog is all about his findings, experiences and thoughts on anything tech based and every other aspect of life found in between.

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  • 16 responses

  • Brandi Zook22 hours ago.

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  • Mason Bardin1 month ago.

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  • Eric Jones1 month ago.

    Cool website!



    My name’s Eric, and I just found your site - gisslen.net - while surfing the net. You showed up at the top of the search results, so I checked you out. Looks like what you’re doing is pretty cool.



    But if you don’t mind me asking – after someone like me stumbles across gisslen.net, what usually happens?



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    Not good.



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  • Eric Jones1 month ago.

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  • Eric Jones1 month ago.

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  • Eric Jones1 month ago.

    Hey, this is Eric and I ran across gisslen.net a few minutes ago.



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    By that I mean, when someone like me finds your website – either through Search or just bouncing around – what happens next? Do you get a lot of leads from your site, or at least enough to make you happy?



    Honestly, most business websites fall a bit short when it comes to generating paying customers. Studies show that 70% of a site’s visitors disappear and are gone forever after just a moment.



    Here’s an idea…



    How about making it really EASY for every visitor who shows up to get a personal phone call you as soon as they hit your site…



    You can –



    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. It signals you the moment they let you know they’re interested – so that you can talk to that lead while they’re literally looking over your site.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitors.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.



    You’ll be amazed - the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus a half-hour or more later could increase your results 100-fold.



    It gets even better… once you’ve captured their phone number, with our new SMS Text With Lead feature, you can automatically start a text (SMS) conversation.



    That way, even if you don’t close a deal right away, you can follow up with text messages for new offers, content links, even just “how you doing?” notes to build a relationship.



    Pretty sweet – AND effective.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitors.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    You could be converting up to 100X more leads today!



    Eric

    PS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitors.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitors.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

  • Eric Jones2 months ago.

    Hi, my name is Eric and I’m betting you’d like your website gisslen.net to generate more leads.



    Here’s how:

    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. It signals you as soon as they say they’re interested – so that you can talk to that lead while they’re still there at gisslen.net.



    Talk With Web Visitor – CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitors.com for a live demo now.



    And now that you’ve got their phone number, our new SMS Text With Lead feature enables you to start a text (SMS) conversation – answer questions, provide more info, and close a deal that way.



    If they don’t take you up on your offer then, just follow up with text messages for new offers, content links, even just “how you doing?” notes to build a relationship.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitors.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    The difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus a half-hour means you could be converting up to 100X more leads today!



    Try Talk With Web Visitor and get more leads now.



    Eric

    PS: The studies show 7 out of 10 visitors don’t hang around – you can’t afford to lose them!

    Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitors.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitors.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

  • Terrell Harden3 months ago.

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    =====



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  • Eric Jones3 months ago.

    Hey, this is Eric and I ran across gisslen.net a few minutes ago.



    Looks great… but now what?



    By that I mean, when someone like me finds your website – either through Search or just bouncing around – what happens next? Do you get a lot of leads from your site, or at least enough to make you happy?



    Honestly, most business websites fall a bit short when it comes to generating paying customers. Studies show that 70% of a site’s visitors disappear and are gone forever after just a moment.



    Here’s an idea…



    How about making it really EASY for every visitor who shows up to get a personal phone call you as soon as they hit your site…



    You can –



    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. It signals you the moment they let you know they’re interested – so that you can talk to that lead while they’re literally looking over your site.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.



    You’ll be amazed - the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus a half-hour or more later could increase your results 100-fold.



    It gets even better… once you’ve captured their phone number, with our new SMS Text With Lead feature, you can automatically start a text (SMS) conversation.



    That way, even if you don’t close a deal right away, you can follow up with text messages for new offers, content links, even just “how you doing?” notes to build a relationship.



    Pretty sweet – AND effective.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    You could be converting up to 100X more leads today!



    Eric

    PS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

  • Eric Jones3 months ago.

    Hi, my name is Eric and I’m betting you’d like your website gisslen.net to generate more leads.



    Here’s how:

    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. It signals you as soon as they say they’re interested – so that you can talk to that lead while they’re still there at gisslen.net.



    Talk With Web Visitor – CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com for a live demo now.



    And now that you’ve got their phone number, our new SMS Text With Lead feature enables you to start a text (SMS) conversation – answer questions, provide more info, and close a deal that way.



    If they don’t take you up on your offer then, just follow up with text messages for new offers, content links, even just “how you doing?” notes to build a relationship.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    The difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus a half-hour means you could be converting up to 100X more leads today!



    Try Talk With Web Visitor and get more leads now.



    Eric

    PS: The studies show 7 out of 10 visitors don’t hang around – you can’t afford to lose them!

    Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

  • Kasha Keeling3 months ago.

    Hi,



    Do you have a Website? Of course you do because I am looking at your website gisslen.net now.



    Are you struggling for Leads and Sales?



    You’re not the only one.



    So many Website owners struggle to convert their Visitors into Leads & Sales.



    There’s a simple way to fix this problem.



    You could use a Live Chat app on your Website gisslen.net and hire Chat Agents.



    But only if you’ve got deep pockets and you’re happy to fork out THOUSANDS of dollars for the quality you need.



    =====



    But what if you could automate Live Chat so it’s HUMAN-FREE?



    What if you could exploit NEW “AI” Technology to engage with your Visitors INSTANTLY.



    And AUTOMATICALLY convert them into Leads & Sales.



    WITHOUT spending THOUSANDS of dollars on Live Chat Agents.



    And WITHOUT hiring expensive coders.



    In fact, all you need to do to activate this LATEST “AI” Website Tech..



    ..is to COPY & PASTE a single line of “Website Code”.



    ==> http://www.zoomsoft.net/ConversioBot



    ======



    Join HUGE Fortune 500 companies like:



    Facebook Spotify Starbucks Staples The Wall Street Journal Pizza Hut Amtrak Disney H&M & Mastercard



    They all use similar “AI” Chat Technology to ConversioBot - the Internet’s #1 Chatbot for Website Owners.



    The founders of ConversioBot have used their highly sophisticated ChatBot to:



    - AUTOMATICALLY build a massive Email List of 11,643 Subscribers in just 7 Days



    - AUTOMATICALLY add 6,386 Sales in only 6 Months



    - AUTOMATICALLY explode their Conversion Rate by 198% in only 6 Hours.



    =====



    Now it’s your turn to get in on this exciting NEW Cloud-Based App.



    You can start using ConversioBot today by copying and pasting ONE line of “Automated Bot Code" to your Website.



    Watch this short video to find out how >> http://www.zoomsoft.net/ConversioBot



    Regards,



    ConversioBot Team



    P.S. This “AI” Technology works with: - Affiliate Review Sites - List-Building Pages - WordPress Blogs (it comes with a Plugin) - Sales Letters - eCommerce Websites - Local Business Sites - Webinar Registration Pages - Consultancy Websites - Freelance Websites



    Almost ANY Website you can think of..



    ==> This could be happening on your Website TODAY.. http://www.zoomsoft.net/ConversioBot



    UNSUBSCRIBE http://www.zoomsoft.net/unsubscribe

  • Eric Jones3 months ago.

    Hey, my name’s Eric and for just a second, imagine this…



    - Someone does a search and winds up at gisslen.net.



    - They hang out for a minute to check it out. “I’m interested… but… maybe…”



    - And then they hit the back button and check out the other search results instead.



    - Bottom line – you got an eyeball, but nothing else to show for it.



    - There they go.



    This isn’t really your fault – it happens a LOT – studies show 7 out of 10 visitors to any site disappear without leaving a trace.



    But you CAN fix that.



    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. It lets you know right then and there – enabling you to call that lead while they’re literally looking over your site.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.



    Time is money when it comes to connecting with leads – the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus 30 minutes later can be huge – like 100 times better!



    Plus, now that you have their phone number, with our new SMS Text With Lead feature you can automatically start a text (SMS) conversation… so even if you don’t close a deal then, you can follow up with text messages for new offers, content links, even just “how you doing?” notes to build a relationship.



    Strong stuff.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    You could be converting up to 100X more leads today!



    Eric

    PS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

  • Eric Jones3 months ago.

    Cool website!



    My name’s Eric, and I just found your site - gisslen.net - while surfing the net. You showed up at the top of the search results, so I checked you out. Looks like what you’re doing is pretty cool.



    But if you don’t mind me asking – after someone like me stumbles across gisslen.net, what usually happens?



    Is your site generating leads for your business?



    I’m guessing some, but I also bet you’d like more… studies show that 7 out 10 who land on a site wind up leaving without a trace.



    Not good.



    Here’s a thought – what if there was an easy way for every visitor to “raise their hand” to get a phone call from you INSTANTLY… the second they hit your site and said, “call me now.”



    You can –



    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. It lets you know IMMEDIATELY – so that you can talk to that lead while they’re literally looking over your site.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.



    Time is money when it comes to connecting with leads – the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus 30 minutes later can be huge – like 100 times better!



    That’s why we built out our new SMS Text With Lead feature… because once you’ve captured the visitor’s phone number, you can automatically start a text message (SMS) conversation.



    Think about the possibilities – even if you don’t close a deal then and there, you can follow up with text messages for new offers, content links, even just “how you doing?” notes to build a relationship.



    Wouldn’t that be cool?



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    You could be converting up to 100X more leads today!

    Eric



    PS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

  • Eric Jones4 months ago.

    Hi, Eric here with a quick thought about your website gisslen.net...



    I’m on the internet a lot and I look at a lot of business websites.



    Like yours, many of them have great content.



    But all too often, they come up short when it comes to engaging and connecting with anyone who visits.



    I get it – it’s hard. Studies show 7 out of 10 people who land on a site, abandon it in moments without leaving even a trace. You got the eyeball, but nothing else.



    Here’s a solution for you…



    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. You’ll know immediately they’re interested and you can call them directly to talk with them literally while they’re still on the web looking at your site.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.



    It could be huge for your business – and because you’ve got that phone number, with our new SMS Text With Lead feature, you can automatically start a text (SMS) conversation – immediately… and contacting someone in that 5 minute window is 100 times more powerful than reaching out 30 minutes or more later.



    Plus, with text messaging you can follow up later with new offers, content links, even just follow up notes to keep the conversation going.



    Everything I’ve just described is extremely simple to implement, cost-effective, and profitable.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    You could be converting up to 100X more eyeballs into leads today!



    Eric

    PS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

  • Eric Jones5 months ago.

    Hey, my name’s Eric and for just a second, imagine this…



    - Someone does a search and winds up at gisslen.net.



    - They hang out for a minute to check it out. “I’m interested… but… maybe…”



    - And then they hit the back button and check out the other search results instead.



    - Bottom line – you got an eyeball, but nothing else to show for it.



    - There they go.



    This isn’t really your fault – it happens a LOT – studies show 7 out of 10 visitors to any site disappear without leaving a trace.



    But you CAN fix that.



    Talk With Web Visitor is a software widget that’s works on your site, ready to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number. It lets you know right then and there – enabling you to call that lead while they’re literally looking over your site.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.



    Time is money when it comes to connecting with leads – the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus 30 minutes later can be huge – like 100 times better!



    Plus, now that you have their phone number, with our new SMS Text With Lead feature you can automatically start a text (SMS) conversation… so even if you don’t close a deal then, you can follow up with text messages for new offers, content links, even just “how you doing?” notes to build a relationship.



    Strong stuff.



    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to discover what Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business.



    You could be converting up to 100X more leads today!



    Eric

    PS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – and it even includes International Long Distance Calling.

    You have customers waiting to talk with you right now… don’t keep them waiting.

    CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.



    If you'd like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=gisslen.net

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